A lot’s changed since the last time the UFC came to Japan for UFC 29. Last time, Chuck Liddell was only a middleweight and Matt Hughes was an up and comer in his division. Even though it’s been since 2000, it seems like it’s taken a century to bring the UFC back to Japan for UFC 144. But the UFC’s return, much like it’s return to Brazil last year, features a stellar six fight main card.
In the main event, a big championship bout takes place as Frankie Edgar and Ben Henderson fight for the Lightweight Championship. Also, Rampage Jackson looks for redemption as he tries to pound out a win over the hoping to be resurgent Ryan Bader in a Light Heavyweight matchup. Also, Jake Shields is also in need of a win as he takes on Japan’s favorite son, Yoshiro Akiyama.
There are a ton of other fights, including match ups with Yushin Okami and Cheick Kongo, but let’s focus in on the main three fights of UFC 144. Let’s not wait any further and get down to the analysis and picks.
Lightweight Championship Match: Frankie Edgar (14-1) vs. Ben Henderson (15-2): It’s been since late 2009 since Edgar has fought someone not named Gray Maynard or B.J. Penn, but by beating those two men in multiple matches, Edgar has made a name for himself in the division and is firmly established as the champ now. Meanwhile, Ben Henderson has slowly been moving up the ladder for a while, but his epic fight with Clay Guida (that most UFC fans missed the first time out), it made “Bendo” first in line for the title. It’s gonna be interesting to see what style wins out here: Edgar’s grinding takedowns or Henderson’s slug it out mentality. Part of me has been very skeptical of Edgar’s dominance over the division, and part of me wants to pick Henderson to bloody Edgar up. However, Edgar is a very smart guy in the ring and probably won’t keep going toe to toe for five rounds. Frankie should find the win by a mix of punches and takedowns.
Pick: Frankie Edgar wins via unanimous decision.
Light Heavyweight Match: Rampage Jackson (32-9) vs. Ryan Bader (13-2): Both of these guys are looking for redemption and a win here would be big. Before he beat Jason Brilz in the fall, Bader had lost two straight to Jon Jones (no surprise there) and Tito Ortiz (still shocked over that one). But he seems like he could be on his way back up the division ladder. Meanwhile, Rampage looked in the shape of his life fighting Jones in the fall, only to fall in the 4th Round. There were doubts before the fight that Rampage’s heart just wasn’t into fighting anymore, but it was obvious he gave it his all in that fight.
With that loss, there could be a letdown factor for Rampage and those doubts could come creeping into fans’ minds again. It's possible to think that his devoted Japanese fans from his Pride days could help, but you have to think that Rampage had a part of him die after that fight and may start looking to life after fighting. He’s had a stellar career, but I think this may be the beginning of the end for Rampage. It’s been a while since we’ve seen the killer instinct in Rampage (other than the Jones fight), and I’m going with Bader in a mild upset.
Pick: Ryan Bader fights via unanimous decision.
Middleweight Match: Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4) vs. Jake Shields (26-6): Yet another story of redemptions for both men. Akiyama has lost three straight is in desperate need of a win. Shields has lost two in a row, after a tough title match loss to Georges St. Pierre and a puzzling loss to Jake Ellenberger in September. But I think that Shields was under duress, with the death of his father days before the fight. I think you see a more focused Shields here and I don’t see this one lasting long and Shields keeping Akiyama on the mat and ending it there.
Pick: Jake Shields wins via submission in the first round.
For a full fight card, check out www.ufc.com for more details.
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