Ok, raise your hand if you’re still stunned over the decision in the Chael Sonnen/Michael Bisping fight from Saturday night? Ok, me too. Now that we’re past that, it’s hard to believe that the main event at UFC 143 will decide a Welterweight Champion whose name isn’t Georges St. Pierre. The longtime running juggernaut of the welterweight division, GSP, is battling injuries and has had to temporarily give up his title because of the length of his inactivity. This leaves two of the better fighters in the division, Carlos Condit and the always surly Nick Diaz the chance to wear the title until GSP comes back.
With the Interim Welterweight Title on the line, UFC 143 should provide some big fireworks when it hits Las Vegas the night before the Super Bowl. Along with Diaz vs. Condit, Josh Koscheck will get back into action as he faces Mike Pierce. And in the other high profile bout, former Strikeforce Heavyweight Champ Fabricio Werdum will take on the Incredible Shrinking Heavyweight, Roy Nelson in a match to decide which one of these guys makes an eventual run at the title.
Even though these fights might not provide the bombast that some of the big fights later this year will provide (yeah, still can’t wait to see Jon Jones finally beat Rashad Evans, or Chael Sonnen trying to keep 100,000 Brazilians at bay when he has his rematch with Anderson Silva), but this should be a better card than a lot of people think.
So, here are my predictions for the major fights going on at UFC 143:
Interim Welterweight Championship: Nick Diaz (26-7) vs. Carlos Condit (27-5): Wanna remember the last time that someone who wasn’t GSP was the Welterweight Champ: Yep, April of 2007. It’s been almost five years since that happened and I think this is the best matchup you can get in that division for the interim title. With Condit, who’s won his last four fights and last nine out of ten- the man is on a roll and can beat you many different ways. Condit has a good mix of knockouts and submissions on his resume, but his striking is gonna have to be at the top of it’s game to beat the always difficult Diaz.
Meanwhile, Diaz is one of the most consistent fighters in the ring and frustrating outside the ring. He had the golden opportunity to take on GSP in October, only to lose his chance after blowing off press conferences. However, he did fight BJ Penn at that event and beat him in a decision. Between his UFC and Strikeforce apperances, Diaz has won 10 in a row.
Part of me wants to pick Diaz, just by boxing Condit to death here and setting up the massive grudge match with GSP later this year. But for some reason, I feel like a lot of people are sleeping on Condit. So, in a surprise, I think that Condit will get some great shots in and squeak out a decision over Diaz.
Pick: Carlos Condit wins via split decision.
Welterweight Match: Josh Koscheck (16-5) vs. Mike Pierce (13-4): With the whole situation with GSP, Koscheck was supposed to fight Condit at this event, but will take on Pierce instead. I don’t think there’s a whole lot to this fight: Pierce does well against middle of the pack competition, but when he faces the bigger names in the division, it usually ends in a loss- which happened against Mark Munoz and Jon Fitch. For Koscheck, beating the ancient Matt Hughes was not the biggest step up the ladder back to a title shot, but I think he’s got enough here to deliver a knockout to Pierce and make a case for the title once the whole interim title deal gets cleared up.
Pick: Josh Koscheck wins via knockout in 2nd Round.
Heavyweight Match: Roy Nelson (16-6) vs. Fabricio Werdum (14-5): You gotta give to the usually rotund Nelson. During his fight against Mirko Cro Cop last fall, people were shocked to see Nelson undergo some major weight loss. From what I understand, this has continued and you gotta give the guy some credit. But did the Cro Cop win give Nelson the confidence he needed after back to back losses to Frank Mir and Junior Dos Santos? It’s tough to say.
Like Nelson, the Brazilian Werdum has a little bit to prove. After doing the whole world a favor and making Fedor Emelianenko look mortal, Werdum dropped a decision to the man who I think will be UFC Heavyweight Champ at the end of 2012, Alistair Overeem. Werdum wants to make his UFC return worth his while and perhaps get a shot at the title.
This is gonna be one of those matches where one big shot or leg lock will end this thing. But in the end, I think that Werdum’s cardio and grappling skills will get Nelson on the ground and the big guy will not be able to recover.
Pick: Fabricio Werdum wins via submission in the 2nd Round.
For a full UFC 143 fight card, check out www.ufc.com for more details.
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